Nearly 18% of the UK’s global trade, worth a staggering £314.6 billion last year, was with the United States. While much of the conversation around Donald Trump’s proposed tariff hikes has focused on the threat they pose to global supply chains, there’s a case to be made that this shift in trade dynamics could give the UK economy a timely and unexpected lift.

Tariffs make imports more expensive, which tends to cool demand and can help ease inflation. And when inflation comes down, banks like the Bank of England have more room to move on interest rates. Lower rates mean cheaper borrowing, supporting economic activity, especially in sectors like housing, where confidence can hinge on these changes.

The Bank of England cut interest rates to 4.25% in May, marking the start of what many hoped would be a steady easing cycle. But with inflation ticking up again to 3.5%, expectations have cooled and most economists now think we’ll only see one more cut this year. Even so, lenders are already moving. Banks like Barclays have relaxed stress test rules and raised borrowing limits, giving more breathing room to buyers sidelined by high rates. And developers are paying attention. After years of tight margins and cautious planning, even a modest reduction in borrowing costs offers welcome encouragement to developers.

“Investors want certainty and compared to recent swings in US markets, the UK is starting to look like a safer bet. Inflation is easing, GDP is up, and the economy grew. I predict that over the next 3-4 months, we’ll see more economic growth.” – Tom Morris

Momentum in the housing market is gradually building. Demand remains strong, and while affordability is still stretched, things have been improving. If inflation continues to ease and rates follow, that could unlock a wave of activity from buyers who’ve been priced out or holding back. Labour’s target of 1.5 million new homes is ambitious, and following the Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility projected that just 1.3 million homes will be built by 2029-30. Although it’s “within touching distance” of its aim, 1.3 million homes show the sector is beginning to turn a corner.

Tariffs aren’t inherently positive – they can disrupt trade, frustrate exporters, and create uncertainty. But they also shift the broader landscape. Trump’s tariff shake-up might help ease inflation, take pressure off prices, and make lending more flexible. Depending on how the next few months unfold, Trump’s tariffs might end up giving the UK economy a welcome boost.

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